Daily Commentary: August 08, 2024

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Market Rejection!

Posted by Pete Stolcers on August 08
www.oneoption.com

The market is weak technically and there is more downside to come.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS THURSDAY – There are some cracks in the dam and the market is weak. The speed and magnitude of the drop the last few weeks are a sign of heavy selling pressure. Any bounce will provide us with an excellent entry point for swing shorts.

I have some starter short positions on and this is my current approach. If the bottom falls out of the market and we stage another leg lower, I will take gains on those positions near the 200-day MA. This is a very possible scenario. If the market rallies above the 100-day MA and the bounce stalls, I will continue to hold my swing short positions. If this plays out, I will add to my swing short positions when the market falls back below the 100-day MA.

Big market drops tend to have bounces especially when the longer term trend has been strong. Tall bounces are also common in the early stages of a trend reversal (reference Feb and March 2022). In order to have swing shorts on now, you have to be confident in your longer term analysis. You will need that staying power.

If you are nervous and you feel that a bounce is coming, you have to wait to enter swing shorts. You are willing to forego gains from another leg lower from here and you know you will miss it if it happens. You are also not willing to take heat on swing short positions if the market rallies above the 100-day MA. This mindset will force you to focus on day trading.

The intraday ranges are extreme and there are lots of opportunities both ways. Tread cautiously and wait for the market to establish direction. Know that the news last week was intense and that it will dry up. That means the intraday ranges will eventually collapse. We are heading into a news vacuum. For now, ride the intraday momentum. When it stalls, watch for signs of a reversal. Stay flexible and don’t marry one side or the other.

When we have technical breakdowns, we want them to blow through support just like we did this week. When the market tries to bounce, we want those technical resistance levels (previous support) to hold. Yesterday the market was slapped down convincingly for a second time when it tested the 100-day MA. This type of price action tells us that sellers are aggressive. If the market manages to get through the 100-day MA, there will be a lower high double top and I am confident in that.

Support is at the 200-day MA and resistance is at the 100-day MA.

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