Daily Commentary: August 16, 2023

Auto Post1Option Commentary

The Market Is Bearish

Posted by Peter Stolcers on August 16

Favor the short side, but don’t be aggressive. Be patient and pick your entry points carefully.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS WEDNESDAY – In yesterday’s comments I mentioned the fundamental reasons for market weakness. Please go back and read those comments. From a technical perspective the market is weak and I want to focus on that this morning.

The SPY gapped down yesterday and the bounce from Monday was instantly erased. Buyers did not “scoop” that gap down and it was a sign that they are passive. The market has been in a steady drift lower and I needed that bounce Monday so that I could gauge the selling pressure. Now I know sellers are in control. The SPY made lower highs during the day and the 50-day MA was providing some support. In the last hour of trading, it was breached on heavy volume. This is a time to favor the short side.

Bull markets die hard and the pullback has been wimpy. We know that from the mixed overlapping candles and relatively light volume. Bulls have been conditioned to buy dips and they need to be “discouraged”. The best way to do that is to breach technical support levels that they were leaning on. Once they are breached, a few things happen. 1. Buyers pull bids because they feel that they will be able to buy at lower levels. 2. Profit taking accelerates because sellers can see that technical support levels are failing. 3. Dip buyers have to exit longs that are losing money. This adds to the selling pressure and the move lower accelerates.

This morning the S&P 500 is down 8 points. Asia was down substantially and Europe was down marginally overnight. The SPY is clearly below the AVWAPQ and the 50-day MA. The temptation will be to short the heck out of stocks this morning. I would not suggest doing that. We can see from the drift lower that buyers are still engaged (mixed overlapping candles). The price action on the drop yesterday was stubborn. Why would buyers just throw in the towel instantly?

I would gauge the early selling pressure first. We are likely to see an early drop and then a bounce. Anxious shorts will act early and they could be flushed out. 1OP is in a bearish cycle. See what it produces. If we see long red candles on volume, you know the selling pressure is heavy (unlikely scenario). Then you can get more aggressive with your shorts. A wimpy bounce during the first bullish cycle will tell you that we are going lower.

If the bear cycle that starts the day has long wicks and tails and mixed overlapping candles, you know the move lower is not that strong and that early shorts are going to get squeezed. The market might fill the gap, but then I would be watching for signs of resistance. The next bearish cycle is likely to provide a good entry for shorts. Know that the FOMC minutes will be released this afternoon. After a big move yesterday, a day of rest is likely. The market action could be rather dull until that news.

I am fairly bearish here, but I am picking my entry points carefully and I am expecting bounces.    

Live Trading

Open an Account

Paper Trading