Daily Commentary: August 17, 2023

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Market Has Broken Key Support

Posted by Peter Stolcers on August 17

The selling pressure is likely to increase now that these levels have been breached.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS THURSDAY – Yesterday the market closed below the 50-day MA and it closed on its low. The SPY has been below AVWAPQ and that is also bearish. The trendline that startd on March 13th was also breached. Without question, there is a negative bias and the selling pressure is likely to increase.

Bull markets die hard and buyers need to be discouraged. They have been conditioned to buy dips and that mentality is pervasive near the 52-week high. That is why we are seeing mixed overlapping candles and choppy intraday price action. As major support levels fail, those buyers have to exit long positions at a loss and the selling pressure increases. Profit takers who were reducing risk become more aggressive because they want to exit while the market bid is still strong. Short sellers who were scaling in notice that the bounces are brief and shallow and they also get more aggressive when support fails. The price action since the high has been orderly and that is a sign of resistance. I believe the downward momentum is going to accelerate.

We have the technical breakdown that we needed to favor the short side for day trading and we can even consider some overnight bearish swing trades. I would NOT be selling WATMs. That strategy has a neutral to slightly bullish bias and your short put could quickly be in trouble if the selling pressure accelerates. Instead, consider selling OTM bearish call spreads on weak stocks or buying ATM put debit spreads.

I would NOT suggest getting aggressive with shorts. I am NOT that bearish. This is normal seasonal weakness and the volume is fairly light. The market found support and the uptrend this year has been strong.

When the market bounces, look for signs of resistance. Then enter short positions. When we get a nice drop or a gap down that finds support, take gains on shorts. This approach should be used for day trading and swing trading. This morning we will have a nice entry point for shorts when the early bounce hits resistance.

Support is at the 100-day MA and resistance is at the 50-day MA.  

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