Daily Commentary: August 21, 2024

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Dull Market Until Friday

Posted by Pete Stolcers on August 21
www.oneoption.com

Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole will move the market.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS WEDNESDAY – After a 10% drop the market has quickly recovered and it is within striking distance of the all-time high. Conditions have been volatile during the last month and traders will wait to see if Powell confirms that a quarter point rate cut is likely in September. Fed Fund futures have priced in a 75% chance of that happening.

This afternoon the FOMC Minutes will be released. The market is hungry for any shred of news and we could see dull trading until then. I don’t believe the release will have a major market impact since the FOMC Statement was released before the last jobs report. That was a weak number and it made some officials a little more dovish. We’ve also had a lot of “Fed speak” in the last two weeks and that is a better indication of where they stand vs the FOMC Minutes.

The volatility in the last month has me sidelined for swing trades. Big drops like that are a warning sign. If we had a wimpy bounce, I would have embraced trading from the short side on a swing basis. That did not happen and the market ran right back through all of the major moving averages. It is important to note that the volume was heavy during the drop and light during the rebound. That does have me leaning bearish and we are in a seasonally weak period. I needed to see a move back towards the 50-day MA before the Jackson Hole speech and so far we haven’t seen that. I do feel that buying a Sept straddle before Fri makes sense and that is about the only swing trade I would do here. If Powell leans toward a rate cut the market will challenge the all-time high. If he stays neutral and says that they still need more data, the market will drop.

This is a good time to day trade. Expect to see resistance at this level after a big rebound. Just like I suggested yesterday, do NOT buy until we’ve gone through a bid check. You had an opportunity to buy mid-day off of the low of the day, but you had to be nimble. Shorts are harder to find after an eight day rally, but there are some. Look hard and set alerts. Expect a dull session into the FOMC minutes.

Target posted a “good number”. It’s hard for me to get excited about a 3% revenue increase when that barely keeps pace with inflation.

Support is at the 50-day MA and resistance is at the all-time high. Error on the side of not trading. Be very selective and patient.

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