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Traders Are Waiting For Powell
www.oneoption.com
The market has been volatile the last month and that suggests a big reaction to the Jackson Hole speech Friday.
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS THURSDAY – In the last month the market sold off 10% and it rallied back. Buyers and sellers are active and they are waiting to see if the Fed Chairman confirms that economic conditions are soft enough to justify a quarter point rate cut in September. The market is searching for anything that it can latch on to. We are in a news vacuum and this news will drive the market tomorrow.
Yesterday we learned that there were 818,000 fewer jobs created for the year (April 2023 – March 2024). This is an annual adjustment made by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and it is the largest revision since 2009 (financial crisis). The market shrugged off the news because it is backwards looking and because it will pave the way for a rate cut in September.
The market is pricing in a quarter point rate cut. If the Fed Chairman does not confirm a quarter point rate cut I believe the market will decline. Any uncertainty will leave investors uneasy and we won’t hear from them again for a month. If the quarter point rate cut is confirmed, I believe the market could tread water. In order for the market to rally, Powell would need to indicate that another quarter point rate cut this year is possible. Given how stubborn the Fed has been I would say there is a 50% chance we go down, a 30% chance we stay flat and a 20% chance we go higher.
Stock valuations are lofty so there is room on the downside. The polls are even so there is political uncertainty. Once the economy starts to soften, the market will worry that they are not doing enough. Will a quarter point rate cut stimulate the economy? Europe and China have soft economic conditions and we are in a seasonally weak period. The big drop this month is a warning sign and the volume on the way down was heavier than the volume on the bounce. Yes, I am leaning bearish here. I am not guessing, I am waiting for the reaction. A drop to the 50-day MA would prompt me to take starter short swing positions. I won’t be active swing trading on the long side here.
There are always opportunities to day trade. Look for a very dull day. if you are trading the long side, wait for a bid check.
Support is at the low from yesterday and resistance is at the all-time high. We are only 25 S&P 500 points from the all-time high so the resistance should be stiff here.
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