Daily Commentary: August 23, 2023

Auto Post1Option Commentary

Will Nvida Rally After Earnings?

Posted by Peter Stolcers on August 23

This stock is going to drive the market action. Here is how I will trade it.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS WEDNESDAY – The market found support Monday and if buyers were interested, we would have seen follow through buying Tuesday. The opening gap up failed and we had a bearish trend day with stocks closing on their low. This is a sign that buyers are not aggressive here.

In August the volume typically dries up and we are in the middle of a news vacuum. Traders will search for anything they can latch on to for market direction. Nvida will report earnings after the close today and it has become a tech giant. AI has been fueling the tech stock rally and it is currently the epicenter (because they are making money on it). There is no question that this earnings release is going to drive the market the rest of the week and perhaps even into Labor Day.

Will NVDA report great earnings? Yes. The question is whether they will be “good enough” to justify its lofty valuation. We don’t guess what the reaction will be, we wait for it and we trade accordingly.

If the reaction is good, tech stocks will bounce and the market will test the 50-day MA. If the reaction is negative, the market will drift down to the 100-day MA before Labor Day.

Can a technological theme drive the market? Yes, but it is not common. CEOs have touted AI as the next internet. That could be true, but AI is in its infancy. The internet showed a lot of promise in the late 1990’s, but it took a few years before Asset Managers fully embraced it. They needed to see the applications and identify where the money would be made. Once that became apparent, the flood gates opened and money poured in. I don’t know when that might happen for AI, but I don’t feel we are at that juncture today.

Bond yields are at 52-week highs and Powell will splash cold water on the market Friday during his speech in Jackson Hole. Credit conditions in China are faltering and their economic growth has been soft. Bank stocks in the US are trending lower. XLF has breached the 200-day MA and it is just above major technical support at $33.35. This is not a good market backdrop during a seasonally weak period (Aug-Sept).

Yes, I am leaning to the short side. I’m not going to guess the reaction today, but I will trade bigger size when I short than when I buy. In the last week I am seeing better set-ups for shorts than longs when I flip charts. The downward moves are much steadier. I will consider overnight shorts, but not longs. I don’t believe that Nvida will be the savior that erases all of the other market woes. I will watch any attempt to get to the 50-day MA very closely for signs of resistance.  If we get there, an excellent short will present itself. I am hoping for a bullish reaction to NVDA because it will provide a better entry point for shorts. A negative reaction would force me to chase.

What would change my mind and get me to be more bullish? A rally with stacked green candles that blows through the 50-day MA before Labor Day on heavy volume would do that. Even then, I would want to see a retest of the 50-day and a higher low before I would consider bullish swings.

Look for a rather dull session ahead of major news tonight.

Support is at the 100-day MA and resistance is at the 50-day MA.

Catch my interview on The Brew this morning at 9:15 AM ET.

Live Trading

Open an Account

Paper Trading