Daily Commentary: August 24, 2023

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This Is A Very Critical Price Point

Posted by Peter Stolcers on August 24

The price action today is going to determine where we go in coming weeks. Here’s what to watch for.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS THURSDAY – The table is set. Today we will see if the bounce can gain momentum after a positive reaction to NVDA earnings. SPY $445 is a critical resistance level and the market will open above it today.

If the gap up has red candles that instantly fill the gap, we can expect additional selling pressure during the day and it will confirm resistance. In this scenario I would favor the short side for short term bearish swing trades and bearish day trades.

If the gap up advances with nice consecutive green candles and heavy volume, it would be a sign that buyers are engaged. Even if the market can’t advance immediately, a compression near the high of the day for more than an hour would indicate that buyers are defending the gap and that higher prices are likely. The depth and duration of the recent market decline suggests that sellers are active. Consequently, I would only be day trading from the long side. In order for me to swing from the long side, I would like to see the $445 level tested again and a bounce off of that level would confirm support (higher low double bottom). Then I would consider swing trading from the long side.

NVDA shot higher after the earnings announcement, but it closed well off if the post-earnings high. This suggests that there is some selling pressure. The S&P 500 also surged higher after the earnings reaction, but it is well off of the high as well. Overseas markets were generally higher, but that move is in response to our rally yesterday and the positive reaction to NVDA earnings.

The Jackson Hole Conference starts today and Fed officials will be speaking. Powell will take the stage Friday morning. Bonds bounced off of the 52-week low and we will see if their comments suggest a pause in September.

For a more detailed description of the price action I am looking for, watch this video.

Support and resistance are at $445. This is a critical price level… let’s see what happens.

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