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Hurry Up and Wait
www.oneoption.com
The market is in a holding pattern and the news is light this week.
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS MONDAY – Regardless if you were bullish or bearish the last month, you were right and wrong. The market sold off 10% and it bounced back. My stance has been to keep swing trades to a minimum and to focus on day trades.
We were sidelined during the 10% drop as far as swing trades. I took a couple of starter swing shorts and they are against me, but the damage was minuscule. I expected a bounce when I took time off and it was stronger than I wanted to see. If the bounce stalled at the 50-day MA, I would have been more bearish and I would have been looking for another leg down. That price action would have given me directional confirmation and I didn’t get it.
The market is withing striking distance of the all-time high. NVDA earnings Wednesday is the big event this week. We are in pre-holiday trading and the volume will be light. Durable Goods orders are the only meaningful economic release and it is minor.
Will economic conditions deteriorate? Will the Fed cut in September? Who will win the election? We don’t know the answers to these questions.
Buyers and sellers have been active. That’s why the market fell 10% and it rallied right back. No one can say with confidence which way the market will go from here. Cases for a move either way have merit.
Focus on day trading and expect light trading. We might see some market movements after Nvidia reports.
Support is SPY $555 and resistance is the all-time high.
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