Daily Commentary: August 30, 2023

Auto Post1Option Commentary

Market Breakout – Watch For This Pattern

Posted by Peter Stolcers on August 30

The technicals look good for a bounce, but don’t expect a run away rally.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS WEDNESDAY – Yesterday the market rallied through the 50-day MA, the downward sloping trendline that started in August and above horizontal resistance at the AWWAPQ. This was a key technical resistance level and that bodes well for this bounce because the move came on good volume. Overseas markets were marginally higher and I expect to see follow through today.

This morning ADP showed that 177K jobs were created in the private sector in the month of August and that is inline with expectations. This is a tame number relative to what we have seen recently and it is consistent with the JOLTs job openings number yesterday which served as a catalyst for the market. Initial jobless claims have been steady at 230K for the last month and that bodes well for Friday’s jobs report (185K expected). If hourly wages drop below .4% we will see some buying.

GDP (second reading) came in at 2.1%. That is a slight drop from last month and right now “bad news is good news” for the market. Traders are focused on a Fed pause in September and slower growth is “market friendly”.

Tomorrow China will report the official manufacturing PMI for August along with the Caixin Manufacturing PMI and trade balance numbers. I believe they will be “soft”, but fiscal and monetary stimulus will mitigate any big market decline.

The market fundamentals are NOT bullish from my standpoint. I believe that the Fed needs to “be careful what they wish for”. An economic downturn could gain traction and then they will blamed for a recession. Global growth is decelerating and credit risks loom.

It’s a good thing I don’t trade fundamentals. I am aware of the backdrop because I don’t want to be blindsided, but I trade price. Right now, the technicals are bullish.

The market pulled back this month and the dip had good duration and depth. That tells us that there is selling pressure. It was not a deep fast drop and we found support well above the 100-day MA. That is a sign that buyers are interested. I am not expecting “lift off”. The price action during the bounce will be similar to what we saw on the way down. We will see nice rallies and plenty of retracement. Instead of leaning slightly to the bearish side, I am leaning slightly to the bullish side. September is a weak month so I would keep bullish swings to a week or less.

Bullish markets establish an early low and they close on the high of the day. Look for a bid check early this morning. The gains from yesterday will be challenged and once support is confirmed, buyers will return. A brief shallow drop near the open that is gobbled up would signal that buyers are aggressive. A deeper and more prolonged market drop this morning would signal that sellers are still nearby.   

Support is the 50-day MA and resistance is $454.

Live Trading

Open an Account

Paper Trading