Daily Commentary: August 31, 2023

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Major Economic Releases Friday

Posted by Peter Stolcers on August 31

Here is the trading game plan today.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS THURSDAY – This week the market rallied through the 50-day MA, the downward sloping trendline that started in August and above horizontal resistance at the AWWAPQ. This was a key technical resistance level and that bodes well for this bounce because the move came on good volume. Overseas markets were marginally higher.

The economic releases (ADP, JOLTs and GDP) were slightly lower. In a “bad news is good news” environment, the news was market friendly. Chicago PMI will be released just after the open. It is not typically a big market driver.  

Tomorrow China will report the official manufacturing PMI for August along with the Caixin Manufacturing PMI and trade balance numbers. I believe they will be “soft”, but fiscal and monetary stimulus will mitigate any big market decline.

The market pulled back this month and the dip had good duration and depth. That tells us that there is selling pressure. It was not a deep fast drop and we found support well above the 100-day MA. That is a sign that buyers are interested. I am not expecting “lift off”. The price action during the bounce will be similar to what we saw on the way down. We will see nice rallies and plenty of retracement. Instead of leaning slightly to the bearish side, I am leaning slightly to the bullish side. September is a weak month so I would keep bullish swings to a week or less.

Bullish markets establish an early low and they close on the high of the day. Look for a bid check early this morning. Those who rushed in yesterday and chased the opening gap up regretted that decision. Be patient and wait for your window. The high from Wednesday will be tested right away. A breakout would be a sign of strength if it holds. That is our best scenario if it comes on heavy volume because it gets us out of the prior day’s range. We will have an early bullish 1OP cycle to work with. Unfortunately, I am not expecting that. The volume yesterday was light and sellers have been engaged this month. It is going to take time for the gains this week to be digested. We are heading into a 3-day weekend and traders are likely to wait for the jobs report tomorrow and the official PMI from China.

So how the heck do you trade this market opinion? You expect a low volume trading session that favors an “inside day” and choppy price action. You wait to see if the early volume is good and if the breakout holds during the bullish 1OP cycle. If it does, you start scaling into bullish positions and you keep your size down. If the early attempt to get through the high from Wednesday fails you wait for the early bid check to run its course. You look for signs of support. If the drift lower is brief and shallow, you know that the next bullish cross will provide you with a solid back drop to scale into longs. You use that market dip to find stocks that are holding gains. After you enter, you set passive targets and you take gains knowing that a sustained rally is unlikely ahead of major economic releases.

Support is the 50-day MA and resistance is $454.

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