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Fed Watch
www.oneoption.com
The economic calendar if light and all eyes are focused on the FOMC Statement Wednesday.
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS MONDAY – The market has been able to hold recent gains and it is within striking distance of the all-time high. It is addicted to easy money and a 25 basis point rate cut is expected this week (89% likelihood). If history repeats itself we could see a gradual float higher into the release. We saw this pattern in September and October.
The S&P 500 futures are up 10 points this morning. Overseas markets were down slightly so there is not much of an overnight tailwind.
China’s exports increased 5.9% and imports increased 1.9%. Both suggest that the bleeding might have temporarily eased. It is harder for China to fake these numbers because they can be verified. China is focused on building domestic demand. Macron said that they might increase Chinese tariffs to address the growing trade imbalance.
IBM plans to buy CFLT for $11B and Paramount could make a hostile bid for WBS.
I believe that the FOMC Statement could be more hawkish than the market would like. The minutes from two weeks ago showed that half of the members did not favor a December rate cut. They are going to err on the side of caution because of the government shutdown and the lack of data and I believe they are going to set the tone that it might be a while before we see another rate cut. That could weigh on the market. After the last two FOMC Statements the market has pulled back.
I have some swing exposure, but I am selling out of the money puts so I have plenty of breathing room. I might add the HUT position I featured it in my Sunday video. Apart from that, I don’t want to add at this level. My best odds will come during a market pullback and I will wait for it. If I don’t get it and the market breaks out, I will wait for confirmation. I feel the odds of this happening are low because the price action has been very sluggish.
Day trading will continue to be challenging. As the market reaches for the all-time high, the resistance will be stiff. I do like the long side for the next day or two, but I need to enter well off of a bid check. The price action during the day is likely to be very choppy. We have seen some sector rotation and perhaps we will find those opportunities before the FOMC. The key to any trade is volume. Without it, the move is likely to stall.
Support and resistance are the range from Friday.
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