Daily Commentary: December 09, 2025

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No Pre-Fed Rally

Posted by Pete Stolcers on December 09
www.oneoption.com

Last week it looked like the market might move higher into a likely rate cut, but it fell back into the trading range.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS TUESDAY – There’s not much to say. The economic releases are light and all eyes are focused on the FOMC.

I felt that there was a chance for a pre-Fed rally and that would set up a post-Fed pullback. The market drifted lower yesterday and resistance at the all-time high is stiff. The FOMC minutes two weeks ago told us that half of the Fed officials don’t favor a rate cut tomorrow, but we are likely to get one. This could result in a more hawkish tone moving forward. The Fed will err on the side of caution and ease this time because of the government shutdown and a lack of data.

I don’t have anything new to add. We are likely to be “dead till the Fed”.

Those are you support and resistance levels. Tread cautiously. This is a low probability trading environment.

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