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Calmly Exit
www.oneoption.com
We scaled out of our bullish swing trades Thursday and Friday. Your remaining risk exposure should be very limited.
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS TUESDAY – Last week we exited two thirds of our bullish swing trades. The pullback yesterday should have made you feel like you did the right thing. Now that your remaining position is smaller, it will be easier to manage. We are not trying to pick tops and bottoms. Our goal is to take a big chunk out of the middle of the move and to do so with size. When we see an opportunity, we start with a small position. When it performs as expected we add. All the while our average cost is much lower than the current price. At worst, we can exit for a scratch if something horrible happens. That knowledge allows us to keep adding to a winning position. Eventually, we will see signs of resistance and we will gradually take profits. Tiny bodied candles on light volume near an all-time high are a sign that the momentum is slowing. Recent gains can be stripped away with ease. We are not going to wait for that to happen, we are going to proactively manage the positions.
I am not bearish. The upside rewards are smaller than the downside risks. We are playing the odds and it’s just that simple. Could the market push higher? Yes. From this point forward we can catch the last remaining upside by day trading. If we get a nice pullback between now and year end would we be buyers? Maybe! We need to see the depth and duration of the drop. In a strong up trend like we’ve seen, we expect that dips will be buying opportunities. If the dip is brief and shallow, we’ll be ready to reload. If the drop is particularly nasty, we will be more guarded. At this juncture we are going to cash and we will evaluate the price action.
Knowing when NOT to trade is just as important as knowing when to add/press.
Your decision to hold the remaining swing positions is a personal choice and it will largely be influenced by your holdings. If they’ve run hard the last few months, they will be vulnerable to profit taking. If you are still fairly bullish you can sell your remaining “runners” and swap in some stocks that are just breaking out. If the stocks held strong yesterday you have more staying power. Know that the hour is late and that you should be focused on going to cash vs entering new bullish positions.
From a day trading standpoint, the upside market momentum is waning. The risk of a blow-off rally is fairly small. I don’t see the level of excitement needed to generate that type of move. Valuations are pretty stretched at this point so Asset Managers do not feel like they are missing a great opportunity at this level. That means I am more open to considering shorts for day trading. I’m not as concerned that I will be blindsided by a massive market move higher and stocks that have run hard are vulnerable to profit taking. There are not as many stocks to pick from because the market has been in a strong rally. That means the bearish searches don’t have as many results. That said, there are some attractive shorts.
The market decline yesterday came on some volume. I am expecting more selling pressure today. Watch for an early bounce that hits resistance at the $606 level. If we can’t easily move through that, the market will test the low from Monday. If we attack that support early in the day, it will be a sign that profit taking is fairly stiff… particularly if it comes on heavy volume. If the market can easily get through the $606 level, support will be confirmed and there will be an opportunity to try some longs. Consider opportunities on both sides and wait for clarity. If you don’t have it, don’t trade. The volume is drying up into year end and this is a LPTE. Tomorrow we have CPI. No reason to expect a “hot” number, but surprise favors the downside after a nice market rally. The market is pricing in a rate cut next week during the FOMC Statement. I don’t believe inflation will impact that decision, but it could impact their future plans.
“Pete, what does all of this BS mean?” We’ve had an incredible year. Lock in the gains now that the momentum is slowing. Go to cash! Trim your size in this crappy environment and see both sides. I don’t have a lot of clarity at this level and the downside risks are greater than the upside rewards.
Support is at the low from Monday and resistance is at $606.
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