Daily Commentary: December 11, 2025

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The Fed Reaction Is a “Nothingburger”

Posted by Pete Stolcers on December 11
www.oneoption.com

After digesting the FOMC statement overnight, the market is right back where it started.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS THURSDAY – As expected, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points yesterday. Half of the Fed officials said that they did not feel the rate cut was necessary and they set the expectations for only one rate cut next year. The Fed did announce the purchase of $40B in T-Bills in the next 30 days and they are injecting liquidity (QE). That is why the market rallied yesterday.

They cited mixed economic conditions. Inflation is under control and provided that the tariffs have been settled that upward pressure on prices has run its course. They said that they feel we could have lost 20K jobs in October and 20K in November, but they raised their economic forecast for GDP from 1.8% to 2.3% for 2026.

What does all of this mean? The economy is on a slow, but steady growth trajectory and we should not expect any rate cuts for a long time.

From a trading standpoint, dips are buying opportunities. Get long and take gains when the market makes marginal new highs. Repeat.

I like selling OTM naked puts and put credit spreads. I am generating income with the wind at my back and distancing myself from the action. Should a market drop become more severe than expected, I will need to hedge my positions with futures. It is easier to adjust risk that way instead of trying to reel in a bunch of positions when the bid/ask spread widens. When the squall passes, I take off the hedge and I manage the positions. That market pullback will set up new opportunities and I will act with a sense of urgency knowing that we won’t stay there long. Once the market bounce is underway, I can expect decent price action for a few days and then the price action will turn to mush and it will be difficult to make money.

Monthly option expiration tends to set up big market moves. Institutions know where the gamma exposure is and they can force traders to adjust risk. This happens once a month and that is when you can expect to be called into action.

The news is fairly light and the rest of the year will be difficult to day trade. Volume will dry up and the price action will be choppy. Be patient and selective. Day traders need to be in “do no harm” mode. You do not want to piss your capital away during poor trading conditions.

Because you are always in defensive mode, you keep your bets small. Jab, jab, jab. When the opportunity arises, you have to deliver the knock out punch. When the market has one of those big drops that happen over the course of a day or two, put your big boy pants on and take some #$%^ risk. That is your opportunity to make money and your odds are high. This is when you will put food on your table for the next few weeks.

Support and resistance is the range from Wednesday.

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