Daily Commentary: December 12, 2024

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Cash Is A Position

Posted by Pete Stolcers on December 12
www.oneoption.com

Don’t feel compelled to always have a position on. There are times when “cash is king”.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS THURSDAY – As I prepare for 2025, I start gathering information. It’s important for me to see both sides of the coin so I try not to have a bias when I analyze the data. When I add up the “pros” and “cons” I feel I have a good sense for where my best odds can be found. I have a rule that has served me well. I don’t have to be long heading into year end, but I can’t be short. You don’t ever want to fade seasonal strength. A year ago I was telling you to buy with both hands. Now I am telling you to be very cautious.

“But why Pete… why?” I bury my face in research and I read news from many sources. There is no one source. I might read a comment from the DR Horton (homebuilder) CEO and it influences me. I might read another comment from a Dallas car dealer about inventory and it influences me. People are always asking me why this time is different and they want to know what has changed like there is some “silver bullet” one stop shop for predicting market direction. The key is to read and to gather information. Know what’s happening around you.

We don’t trade what we think, we trade what we see. I believe that we could see a meaningful market top in the next few weeks. I’m not going to short what I believe prematurely because I might be wrong. There could be a lot of money waiting to enter the market. This has been an incredibly strong trend. Here’s what I know. If we get a nasty deep dip, there will be a bounce. Given the strong up trend, I can cautiously short that dip with day trades. The strength of the uptrend guarantees that there is going to be a bounce. I can buy that because it agrees with the long-term trend. When I do so, I have to watch for warning signs that the bounce will be brief and shallow. The nature of the dip tells me what to expect. The nature of the bounce tells me what to expect. If we make a lower high double top and if my analysis was correct, I can position myself for a trend reversal. That’s how all of this works.

The market could have one more push higher. The closer it gets to $620, the more inclined I am to look for a buying climax.

Swing traders should head to cash.

Day traders should expect fairly dull trading and they can trade both sides. It is still fine to favor the long side, but keep an eye on both sides.

Support is the open from Wednesday and the low from Tuesday. Resistance is the all-time high.

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