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Thank You Santa!
www.oneoption.com
You listened to us last year.
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS CHRISTMAS EVE – A year ago the market was recovering from a nasty round of Fed rate hikes and the recession everyone was fearing never came. The SPY rallied 21% during the last 12 months and that is nearly double the historical average return. Santa has been very generous and the SPY is up 55% in the last two years.
I’m not going to press my luck. This year I’m not going to ask for anything. I have all I need. I’m fairly confident that it will be tough sledding and I want him to take care of everyone else.
Yesterday we saw the typical float higher into year end on light volume as Asset Managers mark-up portfolios into year end. I expect to see similar during today’s “half-day session”. This is also likely to continue into year end. Know that this little move if very fragile. Programs could keep things in check by yanking the rug out from time to time.
Overseas markets were up .5% on average so there is a tailwind. Keep your trading very light.
My longer-term bearish outlook has no impact on my trading. I am going to go with the flow and keep my risk exposure very light. If I see the patterns that tell me I’m right, I will prepare. I won’t act until I have technical confirmation. All of this needs to come on volume and we will not see that until next year.
Merry Christmas!
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