Daily Commentary: December 26, 2024

Auto Post1Option Commentary

Portfolio Mark-up

Posted by Pete Stolcers on December 26
www.oneoption.com

Asset Managers get paid based on a percentage of assets under management.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS THURSDAY – There’s a reason stocks rally into year end. There is disincentive for Asset Managers to sell. They get paid based on the percentage of assets under management. When the portfolio is worth more, they get paid more. They also know that investors like opening their year-end statements when the market closes strong for the year.

This is a powerful force. We want to follow the smart money and they are NOT selling. They might not be buying much either, but a small buy order can fuel a nice move higher if there are no sellers. This is why we do not short into year end. We are either long or in cash.

The news is incredibly light the rest of the year. The rally Monday and Tuesday came on light volume and those gains can easily be stripped away in January.

Right now I’m in cash and I am happy to be there. January is typically a bullish month, but not always. As the first week of the month goes, so goes the month. As the month goes, so goes the year. There is some statistical evidence of this, but not enough to influence me. I’m just going to watch price action.

I don’t like the price action that got us to the high. It is not strong and I suspect that a nice dip is coming. I don’t know when it’s coming or what the catalyst might be, I just know that buyers are not aggressive at this level and that my odds of predicting market direction are currently low. I also know that the remaining upside gains are small relative to the potential losses. I am fine day trading for the first few weeks of the year to see what plays out.

Support and resistance are the range from Tuesday and this is likely to be an inside day. Given seasonality, the odds of finding support early and then recovering the losses is pretty high. Error on the side of not trading.

Live Trading

Open an Account

Paper Trading

Register