Daily Commentary: December 27, 2024

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Cash Is King! I Don’t Like What I See

Posted by Pete Stolcers on December 27
www.oneoption.com

The fundamental backdrop is deteriorating.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS FRIDAY – I don’t like what I see and I feel a considerable drop is coming. My biggest concern is a credit crisis that starts in China. It’s been smoldering for years and it is starting to accelerate. Don’t trust the numbers, they are fake. This is the second largest economy in the world.

China has been the cornerstone to global growth for decades. In a best case scenario, the credit issues are contained to China and they don’t spread. Chinese consumption is already doing a nose dive. Workers (government and state run companies) have not been paid in many months. This is not an isolated instance, it is spreading rapidly and that’s how these things manifest. Many US companies generate substantial revenues in China and that is going to play out in 2025. Worst case scenario is that a credit crisis spreads globally. China’s not alone, sovereign debt levels are at extreme levels in the US and Europe.

The PBOC has launched a huge stimulus program in an attempt to avoid a credit crisis, but it’s not working. A few years ago they limited the amount of real estate that Chinese investors could buy in an effort to reduce speculation. Those property values have plunged and 20 million units have been fully paid for and they aren’t completed. The Chinese government is allowing people to invest in multiple properties again, but no one is interested. Their wealth has already been destroyed.

In the US, the largest home builders have inventory levels that we have not seen since 2007. Car lots are overflowing with inventory.

You all know me and I am not “Chicken Little”. I’m VERY concerned by what I see and many of you rely on me. This is a time to be on the sidelines from a long and short term perspective. I hope I am very wrong about this.

I would not assume a replay of yesterday. The market sold off and it rebounded. Traders will be looking for the same pattern today. A brief bounce would lure dip buyers in and then the door will get slammed. I believe this could set up this morning. Everyone is looking for a year end rally. Be very careful and watch the first bounce closely. This could be a trap. There has been selling pressure on the open for a second day.

We trade what we see, not what we think. I would not be shorting, but I would be heading for the sidelines with longer-term investments. We can’t short on a swing basis until we have technical confirmation.

Support is at $595.47 and resistance is the high from yesterday.

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