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Will the Market Finish 2025 on the High?
www.oneoption.com
Last week the market rallied to a new all-time high, but we are seeing some overnight selling.
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS MONDAY – The last few days of the trading year are upon us and the market is right on the all-time high. The news will be light this week and asset managers will do some window dressing.
Official PMIs will be posted and we will get initial jobless claims on Wednesday. Any gains will be manufactured since there is not any news to justify a move higher.
Since 1959, the average gain from the day after Christmas through the first two trading days of the new year is 1.3% and 80% of the time there is a gain. This is a seasonally strong period for the market. Does that mean it will happen? No.
I posted my 2026 Market Forecast yesterday and I am cautious at this level. I feel that the odds of a pullback in Q1 are higher than the odds of a rally.
Your goal for the next week is to find one or two good trades each day. As far as I am concerned, you can trade either side. Just make sure you have a strong trend in the stock. Stocks that have been weak are likely to move lower. Asset managers will take those losses and offset them by taking capital gains on some of their winners. We will see sector and group rotation and there will be opportunities to day trade some of those moves.
China is stepping up military exercises and that might be weighing slightly on Asian markets. There isn’t much in the way of news and many banks will be closed this week for holiday. That means the volume will be fairly light.
Support was at the previous high of $689.70 and we are well below that this morning. Now it will serve as resistance. Support is at AVWAPQ ($684.49)
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