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Fasten Your Seat Belts In 2025
www.oneoption.com
Prepare for a bumpy ride.
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS THE LAST DAY OF THE YEAR – The last year has been great for us. We were as bullish as we could be a year ago and we rode this move hard. We took massive gains during the summer and we reloaded in November. Now we are on the sidelines. For those of you who might think I’m a “perma bear”, I’m generally quite bullish. The market has been in a bullish trend for the last century and that is not something I want to trade against.
The last time I had a bearish forecast was in December of 2021 and that turned out to be correct.
Extremely high debt levels across the spectrum from consumers to sovereigns are going to come back to haunt us. “But Pete, debt levels have been high for a long time and the market keeps going up.” That is true, but if you look back at the chart the last 5 years, you will see plenty of periods of weakness. Credit issues can smolder for years before they ignite. I remember reading about a mortgage lender (Countrywide Financial) in 2006. It took two years for that to manifest and it was the tip of the iceberg. I am hearing the same right now when I talk about China. “They’ve been on the brink of collapse for the last 10 years.” Trust me, conditions are deteriorating there very quickly and when the shit hits the fan, it accelerates out of no where.
There are a host of other countries (Brazil, Russia and Turkey) that are on the ropes.
There is very little growth globally so the US is the only game in town. Our 3% growth seems great, but when you strip out inflation, we are barely expanding. Interest rates remain high and the Fed is more hawkish than we expected. New home inventories are at levels we have not seen since 2007 and new car lots are overflowing with inventory. This is not a good backdrop.
Stock valuations are at historic highs and the market is up over 50% in the last two years. The leadership has been very narrowly defined to the Mag 7 tech giants. This is not a healthy backdrop.
I could go on, but I don’t want to cast an even bigger cloud over your celebration.
We had a great year and this is a time to be cautious. We trade what we see and I will guide you through 2025.
Thank you everyone for making this the best chat room in the world!
Happy New Year!
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