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Good-bye 2025
www.oneoption.com
This is the last day of the trading year and I am looking forward to 2026.
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS ON THE LAST DAY OF THE YEAR – This was a good trading year, but not a great one. Market conditions have the greatest impact.
The price action heading into 2025 suggested that we would see a pullback. The first two months were very choppy and we had to reduce our trade duration and stick with day trading. We had nice gains and good intraday movement, but we couldn’t swing trade. We finally got the breakdown in March and April and we made money on our shorts. We exited well and then we sold puts expecting a nice bounce.
The drop was swift and deep so the bounce was likely to be tall. When our puts expired and the market rallied, I was watching for a lower high double top and for resistance below the major moving averages. I took some starter short positions when it started to form and I was punished when Trump postponed the tariffs. The market blew through all of the major moving averages on a massive gap up.
The lesson I learned was that news of this nature can change quickly. It was based on policy from one person and he can change his mind. This is much different than a series of economic reports that set a trend. I needed to wait for clear signs that resistance was going to hold and I needed to see a rejection from that level. That would tell me that sellers were aggressive and that they were reducing risk for reasons other than tariffs.
The breakout above the major moving averages was tested and the market instantly bounce off of them. That was a bullish sign and that’s when I took losses on shorts and I shifted to a more neutral bias. The price action wasn’t particularly bullish and economic data points were weak. I focused on selling out of the money puts on strong stocks and selling bullish put spreads the remainder of the year. This was the right strategy and I was able to distance myself from the action. The market struggled to rally in November and December and that is a sign that sellers are nearby. I utilized income generating option strategies and conditions didn’t allow me to be more aggressive. I would prefer to take directional trades, but we didn’t have a strong trend.
I believe that the market will be more volatile next year and that will set up nice trading opportunities on both sides. We won’t have the tariff uncertainty whipsawing the market and Trump will replace the Fed Chairman.
This was a challenging year for OneOption. In October of 2024 my programmer of 15 years was “drafted” by the Ukrainian army overnight. They gave him 12 hours to get his affairs in order and I have not heard from him since. I hope he is well. We spent most of the year learning the source code. This put us back on our heels and we had ambitious plans to improve the speed of Option Stalker Pro. The good news is that we have two talented programmers helping us and we are making good progress. We’ve improved the performance and we have a number of projects underway that will speed up chart loading in 2026.
My book writing took up all of my spare time. I spent an incredible amount of time rewriting my articles a year ago so that they would flow. When I hired an Editor, she told me I had at least 3 books. I had to rip everything apart and decide how the content should be sequenced. I had a manuscript this summer and it just didn’t feel right. When I revisited it in September, I decided to rewrite it. The good news is that I really like the changes I made and I am on the last chapter. I still have to review it and refine it for a few weeks and then go through the editing process again. I am hoping to have it out of my hands in March. I don’t know how long it will take to get on the bookshelf, but the writing will be done.
In 2026 I am looking forward to publishing the book and having a fast version of Option Stalker Pro. Market conditions should improve and all of the arrows are pointing higher.
I hope that your lessons have been fruitful this year and that your trading has improved.
Wishing all of you health and happiness in 2026.
Happy New Year!
Content is provided by OneOption, LLC, which has no affiliation with Regal Securities, Inc. (“Regal”) This commentary is provided for information purposes only, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation by Regal to buy or sell securities or to adopt any investment strategy. Regal has not participated in the creation of the OneOption content and does not directly or indirectly endorse the content. Any reliance on this material is at the sole discretion of the reader.