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Be Strong – Stay Long – Market Has More Upside
The market has formed support and the FOMC statement is behind us. Earnings season is in high gear and that will be the focus for the next two weeks. As forecasted in yesterday’s comments the market rallied and it closed above the 200-day MA.
For in depth analysis on how low interest rates and Fed money printing have resulted in a strong appetite for stocks, please read my comments from Monday.
Over one-third of the S&P 500 companies have reported earnings. In aggregate the “beats” are down year-over-year on a percentage basis, but above the 5-year averages. EPS are up 24.3% and that is better than expected (21.4%) and revenue has grown 13.9%. Of the companies that have reported 77% have beaten EPS expectations and that is above the 5-year average (76%). More than three-quarters of companies beat on the top line and that is also better than the 5-year average (68%). These numbers are from FactSet. This will be a busy week for earnings releases (GOOG today, FB Wed, AMZN Thurs).
Swing traders are long a full position of SPY. Use a close below the 200-day MA as your stop. The average price on entry is below that. Swing traders should sell out of the money bullish put spreads on stocks with strong technical support. Sell the bullish put spreads below that support. This strategy will provide cushion and the stock/market can move around. You will be taking advantage of higher option IVs and accelerated time decay. You needed to add these spreads progressively and I have been urging you to do that. The market will not stay at this level very long. Make sure they expire before earnings announcements and when possible sell them on stocks that have reacted positively to earnings releases. We have an excellent entry point and market support.
Day traders who followed my advice and who bought early yesterday made a lot of money. Bull markets open near the low of the day and they close near the high of the day. SPY has two long green candles off of D1 support and we are above the 200-day MA. The next resting point is the 100-day MA and we have plenty of room before we get there. Favor the long side. You might have to chase to get long this morning. I don’t like doing it, but Asset Managers are playing catch up and the SPY is at the low end of the 60-day range. As far as the SPY is concerned, only stacked long green candles with little to no overlap would get me to chase (20%). A gradual grind higher with small mixed candles will give me time to find the best stocks and this pattern can lead to a bid check early in the day. That dip will be a good entry point as long as the red candles don’t get organized and as long as we stay above yesterday’s close (50%). The best scenario for us is a drop on mixed green and red candles (no trend strength on the downside) on the open with overlap. Ideally we trade below the close from Monday and find support soon after. This will allow us to find stocks with relative strength and we will have plenty of time to evaluate (20%). The other scenarios would be more bearish and they are unlikely (10%). I am looking for opportunities to get long. Lots of tech stocks will be breaking through resistance (trend lines and MAs). That is where I would focus.
Support is at the 200-day MA. Resistance is at the 100-day MA.
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