Daily Commentary: February 02, 2024

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Market – Good News Is Good News!

Posted by Pete Stolcers on February 02

Don’t trust the headlines. The fact that the Fed will not cut rates is a testament to how strong our economy is.

We have an excellent backdrop for the market. People have jobs, they are making more money, they are spending money, corporate profits are excellent and credit risk is low. Does this sound bearish to you? From a technical standpoint it does not get any better. We have not even seen any dips in the last 3 months. Red candles are immediately erased. That tells us buyers are in control.

We took gains on swings Tuesday. It was prudent to do that ahead of major news. The news was good and we might not get any dip. The is confirmation that the market is going higher. We are not going to chase stocks today. If you are super bullish, start by selling out of the money bullish put spreads. That will give you some breathing room if we pullback for a few days. That is still possible and shorts will get more aggressive now that mega cap tech companies have reported. I don’t believe we will go below $SPY $482.70. This dip (if we have one) is going to be brief and shallow so be ready to buy. If the market gets through the high in the next week, we can get more aggressive with longs.

Day traders get ready for a busy one. We have some major cross currents. I like financials and I would buy on a dip if I see heavy volume and relative strength today. I feel this is a perfect backdrop for them. I also feel the NYCB news is an isolated instance. Bond yields are rising and that will weigh on the market this morning. Tech stocks will have pockets of strength and NVDA is a stallion. It will benefit from AI and that is the big news from META.

The scenario I am most hopeful for is an early drop to $486.75 and then a bullish engulfing candle off of the low. 1OP will complete a bearish cycle and I would like that bullish engulfing candle (or bullish hammer with a long tail) to coincide with that candle. I would like this to unfold in the first 45 minutes. If the stocks I am watching hold strong, that would be my entry. If that bullish engulfing candle is followed by a nice sized green candle, I will add. I would also add above $489.20. This is one of many scenarios that could play out, but it would be one that I would jump on.

Support is at SPY $482.70 and resistance is at $492.60.

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