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The Waiting Game
www.oneoption.com
The market has been trapped in a horizontal trading range for the last few months and a nice news cycle just passed us by.
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS MONDAY – In the last few weeks we’ve had the FOMC statement, mega cap tech earnings, tariffs and major economic releases hitting the newswires. Collectively, they have not moved the needle. Buyers and sellers are paired off and the waiting game continues.
As you know from my comments, I believe the backdrop is deteriorating, but at a very slow pace. Europe and Asia have cut interest rates, but growth continues to slip. In the US, economic growth is treading water just above expansion levels.
This is going to be a light news week. Inflation has been creeping higher and it has the Fed’s attention. This weekend, China reported that inflation rose .5%. That was attributed to the Chinese New Year and an incredible cash injection by the PBOC in the fall of 2024. China has been battling deflation and this is likely to be a tiny blip on the radar. PPI in China fell by 2.3% y/y.
In the US, CPI will be released Wednesday. I believe that will be the news highlight of the week. PPI will be released Thursday and Retail Sales will be released Friday. The number Friday will be important ahead of retail earnings releases. Many of those stocks have been drifting lower.
As long as the market is trapped in this trading range, it is prudent to keep your swing trades to a minimum. The market is making big moves within the range and this is a sign of volatility and indecision. We need to wait for a breakout.
From a day trading standpoint, we are right in the middle of the range from Friday and this is likely to be an inside day. In some respects, Superbowl Sunday is like a holiday in the US and the action is likely to be dull today (hangover). I suggest waiting for the first move of the day to run it’s course. I would prefer that we try the upside in a wimpy fashion first. The gap up could quickly exhaust buyers and then we could get a nice pullback. I prefer to trade the short side right now and that is why I would prefer this outcome. If the market gap up fails and we test the downside in a wimpy fashion, I would be willing to wait for support and to trade from the long side.
Support and resistance are the range from Friday and we are likely to stay in it.
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