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Surprise Favors the Downside
www.oneoption.com
Tomorrow the CPI will be released and a “hot” number would spark selling.
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS TUESDAY – There wasn’t any significant overnight news to justify the gap down. Overseas markets were up or down marginally.
The market has been trapped in a horizontal trading range and it was not able to breakout during a heavy news cycle the last two weeks. Economic reports have been inline with expectations and mega cap tech earnings did not move the needle. The Fed is fairly hawkish and they are not likely to cut rates until June. That rhetoric was expected. It is going to take a shock to move the market.
Inflation has gradually been ticking higher. After spending a number of months at .2% (close to the Fed’s target), it inched higher to .3% in December and .4% in January. That is trending higher and analysts are expecting a reading of .3% tomorrow. That would cause everyone to breath easier, but I believe inflation could stay elevated. The market has not been overly concerned with these “one off” readings. Hourly wages the last six months have been averaging a .4% increase. This is “hot” and wages are the largest input cost for companies. TLT (US 10-year Treasuries) broke below the 50-day MA and it is lower this morning. Yields are moving higher and the bond market is bracing itself for a higher number.
There isn’t much news to drive the market this week. The earnings releases are relatively minor. The CPI is the biggest release of the week. Retail Sales on Friday will also be important as retailers prepare to release earnings.
At the high end of the trading range, I believe surprise favors the downside for tomorrow’s CPI release. The market is rangebound and the overnight moves are random. There is no trend and I suggest staying sidelined with your swing trades. I know that’s hard to do, but I feel that the economic backdrop is deterioration globally and it is just a matter of time until that finds its way to the US.
From a day trading standpoint I would watch the low from Friday. That is support. If we attack it and break below it in the first hour, you can focus on the short side. I believe this scenario is unlikely. There are simply no “drivers” overnight. Instead, I believe the market will test the bid in a wimpy fashion and there will be an opportunity to trade from the long side once support is established. The range from Friday is likely to hold. If the first move is wimpy, the second move of the day will present a day trading opportunity.
I might take an overnight short today given my market bias.
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