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Inflation Is In Focus
www.oneoption.com
This morning the CPI will be released and it is the big news event for the week.
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS WEDNESDAY – A major news cycle passed us by and it didn’t produce a market breakout or a breakdown. Earnings, economic releases and the FOMC Statement were in line with expectations. It’s going to take something that the market does NOT expect to break it out of this range.
Inflation has gradually been ticking higher. The CPI dropped to .2% last fall and that was close to the Fed’s target. In December it ticked up to .3% and in January it ticked up to .4%. The market has taken the increase in stride. Core PCE ticked up from .1% to .2%. Hourly wages have been rising and they ticked up from .4% to .5% last month. US Treasury yields have been rising and TLT broke below the 50-day MA on Monday. The Fed had previously planned four rate cuts this year and now they have reduced that to two rate cuts. From my perspective, surprise favors a ” hot” CPI. If it comes in at .4% or higher, the market will drop. That would put the Fed on hold for even longer and at this moment, the next rate cut is not expected until June.
Global economic conditions have been slipping. Central banks have been easing and those efforts have not stimulated economic growth. I believe that deceleration is going to impact domestic growth, but it’s not here yet.
So if the odds of a “hot” number are better than the odds of a “light” number, what would a .2% reading do for the market? It might challenge the all-time high, but the volume during this rally has been very light. That indicates a low level of conviction. Is this the news the market has been waiting for? Is this going to excite buyers? I don’t believe so and I would be more inclined to watch for a gap reversal off of the all-time high if that happens.
If the number is in line (.3%), I still don’t think the market will rejoice. That is above the Fed’s target rate. If this is the outcome, the market will muddle around and we will continue to bide time in this horizontal trading range. In that event, I would stay in cash as far as swing trading. The market could go either way and I favor the downside.
From a day trading perspective, if the reaction is muted, wait for the first move of the day. If it is wimpy, a reversal will surface and that has been a good entry point for day trades. If the market does gap up to a new all-time high, I will watch for a “gap reversal” and I will not chase a “gap and go”. If the market sells off, I will be ready to short below the 50-day MA.
Support is at the 50-day MA and resistance is at the all-time high. Both targets are in range. Let’s hope for a move.
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