Daily Commentary: February 14, 2025

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Buyers Don’t Care

Posted by Pete Stolcers on February 14
www.oneoption.com

The market has been able to deflect bad news and it is within striking distance of the all-time high.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS FRIDAY – This week the market has been able to fend off bad news. The drop from a hotter than expected CPI was snapped up Wednesday. Yesterday’s PPI was also hotter than expected and the market didn’t flinch. It opened strong and it rallied the entire day. This morning Retail Sales dropped -.9% (-.2%) expected. That was a big drop from the .7% reading last month. The market is trading higher after the release.

What does all of this mean? The Fed will be reluctant to cut interest rates because one of their primary mandates is to tame inflation. When economic conditions deteriorate they will not ease and the market won’t like that. Global conditions continue to slip and central bank easing has not stimulated economic growth. Last week the BOE cut rates and the RBI (Royal Bank of India) cut rates by 25 basis points for the first time in 5 years.

Yesterday the market closed above the December 6th high and I believe that we are going to breakout soon. It could even be today. The breakout could be fueled by short covering.

I missed yesterday’s trading session. Early in the day I noticed that the volume was good and that told me we would see a move one way or the other during the day. Buyers stepped in and the volume in the last half of the session produced a nice rally.

We are in “buy and plug your nose” territory as far as I am concerned. I am extremely skeptical and I will be watching for a gap up reversal this morning off of a new all-time high. If it is going to happen, it will happen in the first 30 minutes. Long red candles are what we need for this scenario. If the market holds the early gains, shorts are going to get squeezed. I would favor the long side if that plays out, but keep your trade duration very short-term (overnight).

Support is at $609 and resistance is the all-time high.

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