© Copyright 2025 eOption, a division of Regal Securities, Inc., Member
FINRA/
SIPC |
Important Disclosures
950 Milwaukee Ave., Ste. 102 | Glenview, IL 60025
The information on this web site is for discussion and information purposes only. All accounts accepted at the discretion of eOption which accepts customer orders only on an unsolicited basis, and does not make any recommendations regarding any security or securities product with the possible exception of orders executed by our full service bond desk. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any security or securities product. Online trading has inherent risks due to loss of online services or delays from system performance, risk parameters, market conditions, and erroneous or unavailable market data.
FINRA BrokerCheck reports for Regal Securities and its investment professionals are available at www.finra.org/brokercheck.
Options Disclosure: Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Prior to trading options, you must be approved for options trading and read the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. A copy may also be requested via email at support@eoption.com or via mail to eOption, 950 Milwaukee Ave., Ste. 102, Glenview, IL 60025. Online trading has inherent risks due to loss of online services or delays from system performance, risk parameters, market conditions, and erroneous or unavailable market data.
eOption Commissions: Broker-assisted orders are an additional $15. Option strategies involve multiple purchases; therefore your transaction costs may be significant for option strategy trades. A commission rate of $2.00 for equities and $3.99 + $.10/contract for options, per execution, applies to orders entered and filled by eOption's Auto Trade Desk and does not apply to customers who enter their trades directly into the eOption platform and are not utilizing the Auto Trade desk.
Broker Comparison: The competitor rates from published websites were verified on 05/25/2023 and are believed to be accurate, but not guaranteed. Commissions are subject to change without notice. At some firms, commissions may not reflect broker-assisted fees, orders over 1,000 shares, penny stock trades, OTCBB, pink sheet stocks or foreign stock orders. Firms may offer reduced commissions if additional criteria are met.
Blog & Commentary: eOption is neither affiliated with, sponsored by, nor endorses commentary and the opinions expressed are solely their own. Content is provided for educational and informational purposes only and eOption cannot attest to its accuracy or completeness. No information provided has been endorsed by eOption.com and does not constitute a recommendation by eOption to buy or sell a particular investment. You are solely responsible for your own investment decisions, and eOption makes no investment recommendations and does not provide financial, tax or legal advice.
The Market Is Waiting For A Stimulus Bill
www.1option.com
The S&P 500 has been compressing near the all-time high for the last 10 days. Inflation worries are putting upward pressure on interest rates but the Fed has reiterated that it has no intentions of raising rates anytime soon. Their focus is on the labor market and initial jobless claims came in higher-than-expected this morning. Democrats have promised a stimulus bill before the end of the month and that timetable is approaching quickly.
The impeachment was never going to get enough votes and the GameStop hearings today will be meaningless as well. Politicians should be focusing on a $1.9 trillion stimulus bill instead of grandstanding as Robinhood and Reddit get raked over the coals.
The economic news has been solid. This morning the Philly Fed came in at 23.1 and that was better than expected (20). Unfortunately, initial jobless claims came in at 861,000 and that was worse than expected (765,000). Unemployment is the Fed’s primary concern and they have stated that inflation can rise above their target rate. The PPI came in “hot” (1.3%) yesterday and import/export prices were higher-than-expected this morning. These numbers have sparked a rise in interest rates. Retail sales increased by 5% and consumers are spending.
Earnings season has been strong given the macro backdrop. Companies have increased guidance at a faster pace than expected.
New Coronavirus cases have dropped by 80% from the peak in November.
In my opinion interest rates have to rise incredibly before they impede economic growth. I don’t believe this is a threat to the market. There is resistance at the all-time high and we are likely to stay in the upward sloping channel. When we get near the upper end, expect profit taking. When we get near the lower end expect buying.
Swing traders should place a stop at SPY $385 on a closing basis. I’m not worried about intraday movement, just where it closes. That was the previous resistance level and now it represents support. I will be exiting some of the call positions in the next week because they expire in March and they will be exposed to time decay. Furthermore, the market has lost its upward momentum. Bullish put spreads are the right strategy for this market environment and I suggest waiting for a pullback before you enter new positions.
Day traders should wait for market support this morning. The S&P 500 has been drifting lower and the low from Wednesday will be tested. Once support is established, look for relative strength and heavy volume. Overseas markets were weak and I suspect that the drop this morning will take time to find support. The best case scenario for bulls is a series of three or more consecutive long green candles closing on their high to start the day. That would indicate a strong bid and that the market is ready to rebound. A bearish pattern would breach horizontal support at $387.50 with a new low of the day after two hours of trading. I still favor day trading from the long side.
Support is at SPY $$389.50, $387.50 and $385.80. Resistance is at $392.50 and the all-time high.
Content is provided by OneOption, LLC, which has no affiliation with Regal Securities, Inc. (“Regal”) This commentary is provided for information purposes only, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation by Regal to buy or sell securities or to adopt any investment strategy. Regal has not participated in the creation of the OneOption content and does not directly or indirectly endorse the content. Any reliance on this material is at the sole discretion of the reader.