Daily Commentary: February 20, 2025

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That Didn’t Feel Like A New High

Posted by Pete Stolcers on February 20
www.oneoption.com

Yesterday the S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high on very light volume.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS THURSDAY – Sports teams don’t care if they win ugly, they just want to post a “W”. That’s how I feel about the market breakout to a new all-time high. This was about as anti-climatic as it gets. The price action was wimpy and the volume was light. If the move had more volume and pace, it would be a sign that there was some short covering or that buyers were excited. That was not the case. Asset Managers are “all in” and cash has not been this low since 2010. That means there’s not much firepower left.

I believe that soft domestic economic data points will start to surface, it’s just a matter of time. Interest rates will remain higher for longer and that will weigh on consumption as credit card purchases decline. We saw this last Friday on the weak Retail Sales number (-.9%). This morning initial jobless claims were inline with expectations (219K). Flash PMIs will be posted tomorrow. The economic releases are light next week and the highlight will be the second look at GDP a week from tomorrow.

Earnings season is winding down and retailers are reporting. WMT was inline with expectations. They said that they could be impacted by tariffs, but that 2/3 of the goods they sell are manufactured in the US. That surprised me and I thought that number would be much lower.

Europe was mixed and Asia was down. I don’t see any great catalyst overnight. Some of the wimpy gains from yesterday are being wiped away this morning. I am not taking any long term bullish swing trades (overnights are fine). From a day trading standpoint the first move today is down. Wait for signs of support. We want to preserve SPY $611. If that level holds for the first 45 minutes the market is likely to move higher. That would be a sign that this is just a normal bid check. The absence of long red candles and the presence of light volume would indicate that this is not a heavy round of profit taking. This price action would suggest a gradual and choppy recovery. If we get this scenario and you are buying stocks, they have to be the best of the best. Only heavy volume breakouts with nice orderly price action will do.

The market could gradually float higher in a news vacuum the next week. I view this as a very dangerous backdrop and those gains can instantly be wiped out on one bad news event. That is why I am avoiding longer term swing trades. Stick with day trading. Be patient and be selective. One or two decent trades a day will keep the lights on and that is all you can expect right now.

Support is at $611 and resistance is at the high from Wednesday.

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