Daily Commentary: February 22, 2024

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New All-time Market High

Posted by Pete Stolcers on February 22

We’ve been waiting to see which scenario plays out and we have our answer. This was a compression near the previous high. Here’s the game plan.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS THURSDAY – The FOMC minutes did not sour the mood and Nvidia reported excellent earnings. The market is making a new all-time high and the “dip” was brief and shallow. It was actually more of a compression since we stayed close to the all-time high. This was our most bullish outcome and I highlighted 3 possible scenarios.

There are not any short-term “speedbumps” during the next two weeks and I am expecting a gradual float higher on light volume.

Why not aggressive buying on heavy volume? The rally has been very concentrated and a handful of tech companies are fueling the move. That is not particularly healthy. In the short-term, AMD, NVDA and other chip makers will make money on AI and other applications, but the monetization of AI for other companies is unknown. Interest rates are high and they will stay that way until July at minimum. Domestic economic growth is solid, but the rest of the world is struggling. That is why we are not seeing robust earnings growth across many sectors. Stock valuations are high by historical standards.

Make no mistake I am taking my lead from the technical and I am bullish. In the live event yesterday I answered my own question, “Pete how can you be so sure that the market is not going to just roll-over?” The price action tells me that money is flowing into the market and that institutions are bullish. Price is truth.

There is a potential credit crisis brewing in China. I am well aware of it and I am monitoring it closely. They are experiencing deflation and that is a dire situation. The shadow banking industry is on the verge of collapse ($3T) and that could have a cascading global impact. This has been on my radar for the last 18 months and the problem is escalating. It is the second largest economy in the world and it has been the global growth engine for decades. China holds $1T in US debt and when push comes to shove, they will sell it (higher US interest rates will result).

“Pete you are scaring me. What should I do?” Trade what is in front of you and ignore it. There will be lead time if the dominos start to fall. We are short-term traders and we will be able to exit longs in time and we will shift to shorts. This is similar to what we did in February 2020 during Covid-19. This could be an issue in 2024… or it could take another year. I am aware of the situation, but we don’t know how or when it will manifest.

Gaps up to a new all-time high are often faded. I would NOT chase this gap up. Given my forecast for a gradual drift higher on light volume, we will have time to join this breakout. First, we need to make sure the breakout holds. Then, we need follow through.

Support is at $500 and resistance is at $503.50, $506 and $510. If we run up to $510 in the next week, we could see a buying climax.

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