Daily Commentary: February 25, 2025

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A Short Is Setting Up

Posted by Pete Stolcers on February 25
www.oneoption.com

The bounce needs to be wimpy and we want to preserve most of the losses from Friday.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS TUESDAY – Yesterday we expected a day of rest after a big sell off the previous day. Typically the market will bounce into the range from the previous day and support will form. That’s not what we saw. The market dipped early in the day and it took out the prior low and the 50-day MA with ease. That was a bearish sign, but the market was able to bounce back into the range from Friday. Late in the day, the market tested the low from Monday and it closed below the 50-day MA.

Trading is all about “tells”. These little pieces of information reveal who is in control. Based on my observations, sellers are in control and we can expect more selling… perhaps as early as today.

What was the “tell”? The decline Friday was over-extended. During a bull market like the one we are in, buyers will step in and scoop stocks the next day. They have been conditioned to buy dips. When you don’t get the bounce, it is a sign that buyers are not that aggressive and that sellers are.

In term of taking short-term bearish overnight swing trades, I have no issue and I would encourage them on a small scale. The best stocks will have been weak BEFORE Friday. Every stock was weak on Friday and I would not suggest shorting stocks that only had weakness that day.

Here’s the catch. After big market moves, most of the gains have been realized and there will be an attempt to retrace. We want that, but only to a small degree. A decent little bounce will give the market more room to run when the next drop starts. We would like to enter shorts at a higher level and that bounce will provide that opportunity. Another scenario is a price compression for a few days near the low from Friday. This is also acceptable. Buyers have tried to buy this dip, but their demand is offset by supply from sellers. Eventually, the sellers will chip away at the bid and the market will stage the next leg lower. We won’t have to feel like we are chasing in this scenario because we have more information. Time has revealed that sellers are still in control. A scenario we would NOT favor is a move lower today. That does put us in a position where we are chasing a big move and we are vulnerable to a snap back rally. If this plays out, we have to keep our size small for bearish swing trades. We can day trade from the short side, but not aggressively.

From a day trading perspective I would be most interested in a wimpy bounce this morning with mixed overlapping candles. I want to trade from the short side. There is room to trade from the long side as well if the market compresses today.

The overnight news was light. Asia was weak and Europe was up marginally. Trump plans to go forward with the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico next week. The Continuing Resolution is drawing closer and that is only a couple of weeks away. NVDA will post earnings after the close Wednesday and Consumer Confidence will be released after the open today.

Support is the overnight low ($595) and resistance is the 50-day MA.

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