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Watch For A Wimpy Bounce
www.oneoption.com
The market found support at the 100-day MA. If the bounce is brief and shallow, get ready to buy puts.
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS WEDNESDAY – The market dropped for three consecutive days and it lost 4% during that move. This is a warning sign and sellers are aggressive. If they weren’t, we would not have seen a move like this. Bull markets die hard so we are going to bounce today and perhaps even for the next few days. Overseas markets were strong overnight so there is a good tailwind this morning.
If we look at a longer-term chart, we can see that drops of this magnitude have attracted buyers. We are still in a long-term up trend and buyers have been conditioned to buy dips. They will continue to do that until the bottom drops out. We want the bounce the next few days to be strained. Mixed overlapping candles and light volume are signs that sellers are still engaged. The bounce could last into next week and that is when I believe we will hit some headwinds (ISM Services Wed). We want the 50-day MA to hold. We can close above it, but we don’t want to scream back to the all-time high.
The market has sustained a number of body blows (soft economic releases) and I believe a knockout punch could be coming next week. We have the official PMIs, ISM Man/Services and the employment reports. The market has been in a trading range the last few months and you can see how the long term moving averages are catching up. It was not difficult for the market to breach the 100-day MA. I believe the next drop will take out the 100-day MA and we will test the 200-day MA. The market is still in a long term up trend and we are going to respect that. We are not going to guess that the market is weak, we are going to evaluate this bounce. If we see signs of resistance, we will know that the next move lower is pending.
Some of you will be tempted to trade the long side. That will take your focus off of the short side. NVDA will post earnings tonight. I believe the reaction will be muted. Good results and excellent growth will keep sellers at bay, but the stock trades at a rich forward P/E so good news is expected and buyers are not likely to move the stock much. Your long trades should be day trades. If you hold overnight you could get burned. That overnight risk increases next week for longs.
It’s hard not to trade, but your best tactic is to watch from the sidelines. Spend your time evaluating the market bounce. As it moves higher, watch the stocks on your bearish lists. You want to see them struggle to advance. If they breached a key support level, you want to see them struggle to get back above it. Similar to what I outlined for MSTR this morning. If the market bounce is wimpy, you will have those shorts lined up and ready to go.
Support is at the 100-day MA and resistance is at AVWAPQ and the 50-day MA.
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