Daily Commentary: January 06, 2025

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Market Bounce Ahead of News

Posted by Pete Stolcers on January 06
www.oneoption.com

This morning the market is staging a nice bounce above the 50-day MA.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS MONDAY – This morning the S&P 500 is surging 45 points higher. It found support last week and it tested that level a second time at SPY $580. There hasn’t been much of any news and that favors the longer-term up trend. Buyers have been conditioned to buy dips and that is why up trends die hard. We saw some light tax related profit taking last week and the market will open above the 50-day MA this morning. Europe was up nicely, but Asia was soft.

We’ve generally been in a news vacuum, but Foxconn said that revenues were up 15% last quarter and they are seeing strong chip demand for AI. This has semi conductor stocks on the move this morning.

ISM Services will be posted tomorrow after the open. We have ADP Wednesday and the Jobs Report Friday. Those will give us important information on economic conditions. Thursday the market will be closed in honor of Jimmy Carter. Initial jobless claims have been fairly low, but that is common during holidays because people are celebrating and traveling. We can’t trust the numbers the last two weeks. In short, I am waiting to see how the numbers come out.

From a fundamental standpoint, the Fed has been more hawkish and interest rates have been rising. Any weakness in the economic numbers will spark profit taking because the Fed is reluctant to ease. If the numbers come out strong, we could see this bounce continue.

From a technical perspective, the 5% drop after the Fed was deep and swift. The market has been spending more time below the 50-day MA and that suggests selling pressure. Bulls wanted to see the market bounce immediately after that drop. The price action during Q4 was tenuous. We saw many dips and every rally was challenged. That suggests that the last leg of the rally was not that strong and typically we see much stronger price action into year end.

I do have a starter swing short position on from last week. It is taking heat, but I knew that was likely when I put it on. I want the market to take its best shot this week at a rally. If it rebounds nicely after the jobs report, I will have to take my lumps. If it makes a lower high and the reaction to the jobs report is negative, I will add.

Stay balanced and wait for the news. I feel that the rally this morning has a very high chance of reversing. The greatest threat will be in the first 30 minutes of trading. If the market holds the open during the first hour of trading, that threat will subside and the market could grind higher.

Support is at the 50-day MA and resistance is at $598.

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