Daily Commentary: January 07, 2025

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ISM Services After the Open

Posted by Pete Stolcers on January 07
www.oneoption.com

The market is trying to bounce off of support.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS TUESDAY – The market was able to rally above the 50-day MA yesterday on light volume. In my opinion, that was not a strong show of force by buyers. The M5 candles on the way up were tiny and overlapping. If buyers were truly excited after the news from Foxconn, they would have demonstrated it. It’s not like they were chasing an all-time high. This was a market dip that found support, key resistance was breached and they would have embraced the news. Late in the day, much of the move was erased. This would not have happened if buyers were excited.

The SPY did close above the 50-day MA and that’s important. After the open today, ISM Services will be released. As a survey it is very current and the service sector accounts for 80% of our economic activity. Tomorrow ADP will release private sector payrolls. Thursday the market will be closed to honor President Carter and Friday the Jobs Report will be released. I can’t get a good read on the Jobs Report because of the holiday. It is filled with seasonal adjustments and people don’t usually file unemployment claims during the holiday so those numbers will be artificially low.

I added to a small short position yesterday and I am underwater by about 30 S&P 500 points. I am not remotely concerned. Heading into year end, the move higher was filled with constant dips and the upward momentum was waning. The price action off of this dip has been very sluggish. A few months ago, the dip would have been brief (a few days) and shallow (above the 50-day) and we would have jumped off of support. We are not seeing that now and that suggests selling pressure.

Bull markets die hard and my observations don’t mean that the market can’t move higher. I am keeping it light. I want to see a lower high and I want to see a negative reaction to the Jobs Report Friday. If the market takes out AVWAPQ, it will test the 100-day MA. If I get this price action, I will add to the short. If the market rallied back above the open from December 18th, I will take my lumps.

From a day trading standpoint there are good longs and shorts now that the market has been trapped in a range the last month. The volume remains light so error on the side of not trading. The news is going to crank up the next few weeks so you won’t have to wait long for this to be resolved one way or the other.

I would not take any positions before ISM Services at 10:00 AM ET.

Support is at the 50-day MA and resistance is at the high from Monday.

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