Daily Commentary: January 13, 2025

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Don’t Panic!

Posted by Pete Stolcers on January 13
www.oneoption.com

Stay calm. The market is not going to fall apart overnight.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS MONDAY – I can sense that some of you have worked yourself into a lather. “Pete’s been bearish and the market is selling off. OMG, I don’t want to miss this move and the SPY is below the 100-day MA.”

I told you in the video yesterday that the market rarely has back-to-back long reds. This is going to be a day of rest after the drop Friday. The futures are down overnight and global markets were weak. That is largely in response to our drop Friday. We are going to see how the day plays out. Bull markets die hard and the price action on the way down has been choppy with mixed overlapping candles. That is not a strong move.

Yes, I do see global economic conditions deterioration and yes, Challenger said that hiring will be light and planned layoffs are likely to rise. Friday’s jobs report was strong so the bid will remain sturdy. We get a decent drop, we are going to bounce. All of the other US economic data points are not dire.

I didn’t see any news over the weekend that spells disaster. The market is below the 100-day MA and if it can’t bounce early, I am happy to join the move. Gap and Go’s that follow a heavy day of selling are dangerous to chase. Keep a cool head. What price action would tell us that this is going to be a gap reversal? Think about that pattern. Visualize it. I will post it 30 minutes after the open in the chat room. If you can’t visualize it, you can plan for it. This move could easily lure in bearish speculators and then the door will get slammed in their face 30 minutes later. I’m cool with that and I will buy if we quickly enter the gap. You always need to see both sides of the coin.

Support is at the 100-day MA and that is also resistance. This is a pivotal juncture.

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