Daily Commentary: January 14, 2025

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This Chart Will Help You Trade This Move

Posted by Pete Stolcers on January 14
www.oneoption.com

The market is in a downward sloping trading channel and it drives most traders nuts.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS TUESDAY – The price action we’ve seen during the last few weeks has had a negative bias, but the price action is so dang choppy that it is hard to stick with a position. Let me add some clarity.

Bull markets die hard. When the market is transitioning from bullish to bearish, long-term buyers are still conditioned to buy dips. That strategy has been very successful for the last 18 months. The market cracked the 100-day MA yesterday and it bounced right back. That is so frustrating for shorts. The market bounces and it puts together a couple of nice days… maybe its time to buy. You take some long positions and then the market drops. You are getting twisted by this price action. This is a downward sloping trading channel. You need to short near the upper trendline and you need to take gains near the lower trendline. I wouldn’t try to get cute with the bounces, because one of these times the market will keep going lower. The chart below will help you.

The PPI came out this morning and it was “market friendly”. Light inflation will pave the way for more Fed easing. Yesterday the market breached the 100-day MA and it rallied back above it. This should give dip buyers confidence that support is holding. On a good number like this, you would expect follow through buying. There could also be some short covering. In a normal bullish market, this is what you would expect. However, if the market can’t rally very much… it is a warning sign that the selling pressure is really building. Long-term money is looking ahead and the PPI is backwards looking.

Do you remember how the market flew above the 50-day MA last week on good news from Foxconn? That bounce failed. Do you remember how the market sold off Friday on a good jobs report? A lackluster bounce today will signal the same.

Tomorrow the CPI will be released and JPM will report earnings. I’m not concerned with the CPI. I believe that JPM could reveal that consumer credit conditions are deteriorating. I’ve been monitoring it and the $8T of Covid-10 stimulus that was pumped into the economy a few years ago has run out. Interest rates remain high and that is squeezing consumers.

I am favoring the short side for swing trading. If this is a low quality bounce, a good short will set up.

Support is at the 100-day MA and resistance is at $585.

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