Daily Commentary: January 24, 2024

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Market Made the Next Move Higher

Posted by Pete Stolcers on January 24

The price action remains strong. Here is the game plan for swing traders and day traders. What happens on this gap up will help us gauge how strong buyers are.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS WEDNESDAY – The market is adding to the all-time high as earnings season unfolds. Mega cap tech companies report next week and I am expecting strength until then. If the SPY blows through $490 before the FOMC, I would suggest taking some gains next week.

The advanced GDP reading will be released tomorrow. This is the only one that has any market impact. It is a backwards looking data point, but the first look sets the tone. It’s expected to come in at 2.2% vs 4.9% last quarter. That is a considerable drop. Would that be bad for the market? That result is priced in and I don’t believe it will be. It puts the Fed one step closer to a rate cut. What if GDP was much stronger, will that be bearish? I don’t believe so. It is a sign that the economy is strong. A reading below 1.5% might spark a little selling, but I have not seen any evidence that that could happen. The PCE on Friday will also be important because it is used by the Fed to gauge inflation.

The ECB has been vocal about not raising rates before summer when they spoke in Davos. They have a meeting Thursday. The comments should be more hawkish than the market would like, but inline with expectations.

The Fed is going to splash cold water on the market. The rate cuts are not coming as soon as the market would like.

So what do we do? We stay long on a swing basis until next Tuesday and we ride those trades hard. The more we rally between now and then, the more inclined we should be to take gains. For day trades we do not chase. We wait to see if the opening gap up is going to fill partially or reverse. Once support is established, we buy. Most of you should be in long only mode. Shorting is risky right now.

Earnings reactions have generally been good and overseas markets were strong. There is a good backdrop this morning. I believe that any probe for support will be brief and shallow. 1OP is cresting. Let’s see what the first bearish cycle produces. If more than half of the gap up is preserved, we will know buyers are interested.

Support is at SPY $480 and resistance is at SPY $490 and $500

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