Daily Commentary: January 25, 2024

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Market Dodged Another “Bullet”

Posted by Pete Stolcers on January 25

The ECB and a major economic release were absorbed and the market is likely to find support. Here’s what I’m watching.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS THURSDAY – The market is climbing the “wall of worry”. This morning it dodged a few more “bullets” and the futures are up nicely.

Overnight earnings reactions were generally positive, the ECB statement is behind us and the economic releases have been strong. The PMIs were solid yesterday and GDP grew 3.3% in Q4. This was the first reading and it bodes well for jobs, credit and earnings. Any boo-hoo “higher for longer” dip will be temporary. This is a good back drop and some of the biggest market rallies have taken place in a high/rising interest rate environment.

If the market gets ahead of itself, you will see profit taking. Yesterday was a classic example. The SPY staged a nice run and it was smacked down from the high of the day. It was not able to get through that high and sellers (profit takers) surfaced late in the day. They drove the market back down and once the downward momentum was established it continued to leak lower.

This morning we have a gap up. You should already know to use caution. We need to make sure that the gap holds. We want a wimpy dip that finds support above the half-way point. That will give us time to find the best stocks. Overseas markets were up and the back drop is good.

I like being long into next Wednesday. I would take some gains on swing longs ahead of the FOMC statement. There is no need to press your luck into a binary event after a big run higher. Surprise favors a negative reaction because good news is priced in. Does that mean I am bearish? No!!! It means I am reducing risk and I am waiting for a dip. This event has the potential to provide that.

Until the FOMC, the market will float higher. Shorts will be very passive at an all-time high (unless we get a monster rally) and the path of least resistance is up.

Support is at SPY $480 and resistance is at SPY $490 and $500

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