Daily Commentary: July 01, 2024

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Short Week With Big News

Posted by Pete Stolcers on July 01

The jobs report Friday will be important and it will keep some traders around.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS MONDAY – From the close a week ago Friday, the market has not moved. The news has been light and we have a holiday this week.

The economic releases will be heavy this week. ISM manufacturing, ISM services, ADP, JOLTS and the jobs report will be posted. Initial jobless claims have been creeping higher in the last few weeks and the employment numbers could be a little soft. I don’t believe this will have a major market impact since the Fed has the latitude to cut rates later this year. Inflation has started to wane so they have some breathing room.

If not for the jobs report being posted Friday, we could have been in for a very dull stretch all week. Many traders will take Friday off since Thursday is a legal holiday. That would make it a 4-day weekend. The jobs report Friday will keep a few traders around, but I’m not expecting any fireworks.

There was a little volume last week, but that was all related to the end of the quarter.

I’m market neutral at this level. There is no urgency to buy at the all-time high and our best set-up is to wait for a dip before we enter swing trades. Be patient and resist the temptation to buy this float higher. These gains can quickly be stripped away.

Day traders can trade either side. Volume is the key ingredient this week and without it, most stocks will reverse moves during the day. Look for breakouts/breakdowns on good volume and you will have a chance to ride a move. You only need a couple of good trades per day. Keep your trade count and your size down. This is a period where you have to be satisfied with small gains. If you try to force trades… you’ll regret it. Error on the side of not trading.

Support is at the low from last week ($542.44) and resistance is at the all-time high.

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