Daily Commentary: July 02, 2024

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Wait For A Market Dip. Very Dull Action

Posted by Pete Stolcers on July 02

This is not a time to load up on longs. Stay in cash and wait for a pullback.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS TUESDAY – The last leg of this market rally has featured tiny compressed candles and light volume. Asset Managers are not going to chase stocks at this level when the forward P/E is 21. They will buy dips and that is what you should wait for.

There are significant economic releases this week and the jobs report on Friday will prevent everyone from taking a 4-day holiday. If not for that number, Friday would have been absolutely dead. The market closes early tomorrow (Wednesday). Initial jobless claims have been increasing in recent weeks and I believe the jobs report will be a little light (150K jobs). That is less than the 196K jobs that are expected. I don’t believe this will spark a big market drop since the Fed has breathing room to ease if they need to.

The news will remain fairly light until the last week in July. That is when mega cap tech companies will report and we will have the FOMC statement on July 31st. That is the next window when we could see decent price action.

This is a low probability trading environment. There is no movement and option IVs are low so selling OTM credit spreads is difficult. You are not getting properly rewarded. Most traders should just wait for a dip. We want it to be brief and shallow and we want to see stubborn price action on the way down. That will indicate that buyers are still interested and that a buying opportunity is setting up. Once support is established, be ready to buy. A dip to SPY $525 is very possible.

Short-term professionals can day trade from either side. I am finding better shorts than longs at this level and that is often a sign that the market is going to pullback. I know that I am trading against a longer term up trend so I am trading smaller size and I am taking profits earlier (I’m not trying to ride the trade because it could reverse).

The main message today is to keep your size very small if you trade at all. You want to wait for the dip. If you force trades now, you will regret it.

Support is at $540 and resistance is at the all-time high.

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