Daily Commentary: July 11, 2023

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CPI Tomorrow Could Mean Dull Trading Today

Posted by Peter Stolcers on July 11

The reaction to this release has been muted the last few months.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS TUESDAY – The SPY is trapped in a range between $430 and $444. We’ve seen two sided price action within that range on light volume and I expect that to continue. The longer term trend is up and as long as the Low+ trendline from the low last year is intact, I suggest trading from the long side.

Since the market is in a three steps forward, two steps backwards pattern, traders have to be patient. Buy dips once support has been established. Find the strongest stocks that are breaking through horizontal resistance. Instead of buying those breakouts right away, set short term alerts to buy dips. Those stocks will have relative strength and I like to set a condition on an M15 basis (for day trades and overnight swings) where the stock loses its relative strength and then regains it using the Option Stalker Pro alert feature. These stocks often make big moves on heavy volume and that is what gets them on our radar. Eventually, the stock will experience a light round of profit taking and that is the dip we are looking for. The alert gives us time to evaluate the market and the stock. If all looks good and the stock preserves most of its gains… buy it. When the stock and the market lose the upward momentum, take profits. Repeat.

Overseas markets were generally higher so the back drop this morning is slightly bullish. The news is light so there is no catalyst for a big move. I expect to see choppy trading early. After a couple of days of selling, the downside will be tested. We want the market to find support well above the low from Monday.

The CPI will be released tomorrow. The reaction has been relatively muted the last 4 months and there is a slight upward bias. Inflation is starting to abate according to this release. In the absence of an overnight driver, we need to establish a nice directional move early in the day (unlikely). If the action is dull after two hours of trading, we are likely going to fall into “wait and see” mode.

Support is at the SPY AVWAPQ ($437.29) and resistance is $442.64.

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