Daily Commentary: July 11, 2024

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Market Makes A New High On CPI

Posted by Pete Stolcers on July 11
www.oneoption.com

The SPY rallied on the news. Don’t chase, wait for support.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS THURSDAY – The market has been very strong the last few weeks, but the rally has come on light volume. That is not bearish, but it is a sign that the level of conviction is low. We’ve seen many gaps up. Some of them stick and some of them reverse. In every instance there was a “bid check”. Trading programs test to see how strong the bid is. Once that confirmation of support is established a buying opportunity sets up. The same will be true today. The big initial overnight gains have been stripped away and we are already seeing signs that a move higher will be challenged.

The CPI declined .1% and an increase of .2% was expected. Core CPI was up .1% and an increase of .2% was expected. This will give the Fed more breathing room to ease if they need to. Initial jobless claims (222K vs 236K last week) were lower than expected and economic growth remains strong. Lower inflation and strong employment is good for the market.

Good news is priced in and the S&P 500 rallied more than 50 points yesterday. Traders were expecting a low inflation reading. The gains from yesterday will be tested. Be patient and evaluate the price action. The temptation will be to pile in on the open. FOMO Joe is thinking, “Hey, inflation is low and we have good job growth! That’s good news for the market and it’s not gapping up on the news. I’m going to buy the open, this is a bargain.” Don’t fall into that trap.

This is good news for the market, but there are no bargains at this level. There is no need to chase anything. Let the dust settle and if the market holds the gains from yesterday, you will have confirmation of support and you can buy mega cap tech stocks. That is where all of the market strength is now. If we see profit taking you will be happy you waited.

The next two weeks are seasonally bullish. Earnings season will kick off tomorrow, but we will not hear from big tech until the end of the month. That is also the next FOMC meeting. The recent market gains have come on light volume and means the market is vulnerable to a pullback. Everyday the bid is tested before we move higher.

There are opportunities to make money, you just have to wait for your set-ups. We never know when we might see profit taking. Watch for any smack down from the high of the day on heavy volume with stacked red candles. We probably will not see that for a few weeks, but that will be a sign of profit taking/resistance.

Support is the low from Wednesday and resistance is the high from pre-open trading (SPY $563.52)

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