Daily Commentary: July 12, 2024

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Gap Reversal Off of An All-time High

Posted by Pete Stolcers on July 12
www.oneoption.com

I’ve been warning you to watch for this pattern. This is a sign of resistance.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS FRIDAY – Yesterday the market traded at a new all-time high and it reversed sharply. The CPI came in lighter than expected (.1% vs .2% on core) and initial jobless claims declined (people have more jobs). This is market friendly news. So why did the market drop?

The CPI has been trending lower and good news was expected. The giant rally Wednesday priced in good news. It’s funny that no one asks why the market went up so much Wednesday, they only want to know why it went down so much yesterday. In essence, the gains from Wednesday were erased Thursday. I would not read too much more into it than that at this stage.

The selling pressure yesterday is a reminder that this rally is getting over-extended. We are likely to see profit taking at these levels and resistance is building. The gains from this point forward will be hard fought. We still have a couple of seasonally bullish weeks ahead of us and earnings season kicked off this morning.

Banks will dominate the earnings scene early. The reactions from C, WFC and JPM were mixed with no real net impact. In two weeks, mega cap tech stocks will report and those reactions will be critical. Those stocks have been fueling the rally. Are earnings good enough to send them higher? Is good news already priced in? We’ll find out.

Yesterday we saw heavy rotation out of tech (QQQ) and into small caps (IWM). I don’t view this as a long term rotation. Institutions took profits on what has been hot and they rotated into what has been cold. Typically as a rally matures, the “dogs” start to bounce. That is what we saw yesterday and it is another warning sign that resistance is building.

If the market can’t recover in the next week, it is a sign that the selling pressure is heavy. If it can recover this bearish engulfing candle from yesterday, it is a sign that the market will float higher into mega cap tech earnings and the FOMC ( July 31).

This is a time to keep your swing trades very light. I am watching the price action intraday and I am day trading. There are good opportunities on both sides. I would favor day trading tech. The volume is heavy and the price movement is brisk. That spells opportunity for those who know how to read price action.

Support is the low from Thursday and resistance is the high. This will very likely be an inside day.

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