Daily Commentary: July 13, 2023

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Don’t Chase This Gap Up Either

Posted by Peter Stolcers on July 13

The same advice I gave you yesterday applies today as well. Here’s the game plan.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS THURSDAY – The PPI was in line with expectations (.1%) and initial jobless claims were as well (239K). Foreign markets were up nicely and that is providing a bullish backdrop. Asia is a bit of a surprise since China’s exports were down more than expected (12.4%) and imports were down more than expected (6.8%). It is going to be hard for global markets to march higher when the second largest economy in the world is in decline. To put this into perspective, the US and China combined account for almost half of the world’s GDP. I’m not bearish, but this does make me less bullish.

The market broke out to a new 52-week high yesterday and it hit resistance. Gaps up to a new relative high are typically challenged and this morning we are going to gap up to that resistance level again. I am not expecting us to blow through the high from Wednesday. If I see stacked green candles on heavy volume right through $448, I will respect the move (this scenario is unlikely). I believe the market will struggle to advance early in the day. An immediate smack down with long red candles would be a sign of selling pressure (this scenario is also unlikely). It would set-up a possible bearish trend day and the gap from yesterday could fill. Overseas markets were strong and earnings season will start tomorrow. That gives us a bullish backdrop to work with today. I believe we will see some retracement in the first hour of trading. From a bullish perspective we want that pullback to be stubborn with mixed overlapping candles. If the market is able to stay near the $448 level after an hour of trading, we will rally above it. This is our best set-up for bullish trades. Once the bid is tested, the strongest stocks will stay near their high of the day. Look for recent D1 technical breakouts on heavy volume and relative strength. Buy these stocks and add when the market makes a new high of the day. That market breakout will give us a nice tailwind.  

Support and resistance are the prior day’s range.

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