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The Calm Before the Storm
www.oneoption.com
We have a very busy week ahead with lots of news.
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS FRIDAY – The S&P 500 is up 40 points overnight. The PCE deflator was inline (.1%) and the release did not have a market impact. Overseas markets were up overnight with healthy gains in Europe.
GDP was better than expected and this was our first look at Q2 growth (2.8%). We will get many economic releases next week (ADP, JOLTS, ISM manufacturing and the jobs report). These releases are more current than GDP. The 4-week moving average for initial jobless claims is around 235K and that bodes well for the jobs numbers next week.
Activity is strong and the Fed has no reason to cut rates in September. Next week the FOMC statement will be released.
AMZN, AAPL, META and MSFT will post results next week. TSLA and GOOG had negative reactions this week and that weighed on the market.
There is technical damage. The market broke AVWAPQ, the 50-day MA and a long-term up trendline that starts in October and ends in April. The news next week will determine market direction. We’ve seen a decent amount of selling pressure, but bull markets die hard. Traders have been conditioned to buy dips and it is still too early to short. Bears are not going to aggressively short ahead of mega cap tech earnings when those stocks have been fueling the market rally.
I expect to see some support here. The height and speed of the recovery will tell us how much gas is left in the tank. If we struggle to get back to the all-time high and we see mixed overlapping candles, a double top lower high will form. I believe this is the most likely scenario and we are heading into seasonal weakness. There could also be more political uncertainty now that the polls have evened up. This pattern would set up opportunities to swing from the short side.
If the market stages an impressive bounce and it easily recaptures the all-time high, we have to respect that move and it is a bullish sign. I’ve seen a fair amount of selling the last week and that is why I feel that this pattern is less likely. I would passively trade from the long side and I would not take many bullish swing trades.
The main point is that we still need to keep our swing trades to a minimum. We need this news. Once we have it, we will head into a news vacuum the rest of the month so the reaction will determine where we go in August.
From a day trading standpoint, gaps up of this magnitude tend to stick. Look for an early bid check. If it is wimpy and if we barely test the gap, we are going higher (likely). Early long red stacked candles would be a sign of selling pressure and then we are likely to fill more of the gap. This means you have to hold off on longs. We could grind higher after the gap up. This would be my favorite set-up if it is wimpy. At some point today, the bid will be tested and a great short will set up.
Take the day as it comes and don’t get locked in to one side or the other. Buyers and sellers are active. Wait for your set up.
Support is at the low from Thursday and resistance is at the 50-day MA and AVWAPQ.
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