Daily Commentary: June 05, 2024

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Expect Market Volatility

Posted by Pete Stolcers on June 05

The market has been trapped in a range and we have major news pending.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS WEDNESDAY – This morning the market will gap up. Don’t chase this move. ADP came in at 152K and that is lighter than the 173K that was expected. JOLTS came in light yesterday and the job market is starting to soften slightly. The “bad news is good news” crowd is supporting the move this morning.

The D1 chart has not changed much in the last two months. We saw some profit taking and the market recovered. It made a marginal new high a couple of weeks ago and we hit resistance. Buyers and sellers are paired off and you should not expect lift off.

ISM services will be released 30 minutes after the open. Last month it fell into contraction territory for the first time since 2022. Weak data points might seem fine on the surface, because the Fed will cut rates. Don’t buy into this line of thinking. We want strong economic growth and we don’t want the Fed to lower rates because activity is slowing. The rate cut celebration won’t last long and institutions will start to worry that the Fed waited too long and that they are too hawkish.

The jobs report Friday should be in the 150 – 175K range based on initial jobless claims the last month. That is a fairly market neutral number. Then the market will wait for the FOMC statement next week.

The SPY has been trapped in a trading range. There is major news pending and we have seen two-sided price action. When a directional move loses its momentum, look for a reversal.

Gaps up have typically been faded. If the retracement into the gap is brief and shallow, a good buy will set up. If the gap starts to fill immediately, watch for a potential gap reversal.

I expect to see nice two-sided movement today and a dull day tomorrow into the jobs report.

Support is at AVWAPQ and resistance is at the all time high.

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