Daily Commentary: June 11, 2024

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All Eyes On the FOMC and the CPI

Posted by Pete Stolcers on June 11

The market needs a catalyst and this is the last major piece of news for a few weeks.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS TUESDAY – This morning the market is giving back most of the gains from yesterday. The price action the last few months has been lackluster. The upward momentum is starting to stall and the volume has been light. The market barely made a new all-time high and the candle bodies are tiny. This suggests that we might be stuck in a trading range this summer.

The economic releases have been strong enough to keep the Fed from easing. Goldman Sachs believes that there will not be a rate cut until after the election and I agree with that timeline. Inflation has been gradually declining, but it is still well above the Fed target rate. I believe that CPI will be in line with the expectations (.3%). We will get an initial reaction to the news tomorrow, but I don’t feel the market will travel far.

There’s nothing to drive the market from this level. At very best, we could see a light volume rally that features tiny bodied candles. Moves of this nature are quickly reversed and we need to tread cautiously because a dip could come at any time. A more likely scenario is that the market stays in a fairly tight trading range. Valuations are fairly rich and Asset Managers will not be inclined to chase stocks at an all-time high given the backdrop.

This is a time to keep your powder dry. Don’t take large positions either way. Swing traders should sell OTM credit spreads on stocks with relative strength and relative weakness. Take advantage of time decay and distance yourself from the action. Day traders can trade from either side, but you have to patiently wait for momentum. Avoid trading “inside days” where the volume is light. All you need is a couple of good trades a day. Try to grind out small gains and don’t take big risks.

This is likely to be a very dull day.

Support is at $530 and resistance is at the all-time high.

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