Daily Commentary: June 11, 2025

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Inflation Down – Is That Good?

Posted by Pete Stolcers on June 11
www.oneoption.com

This morning the CPI came in better than expected and this gives the Fed breathing room to ease.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS WEDNESDAY – The market has been able to hold the breakout and it is floating higher on light volume. The news cycle will remain bullish for a few more weeks and the market is within striking distance of the all-time high.

The CPI had a good chance of coming in light today and I am expecting the same for the PPI tomorrow. Prices have been easing globally due to reduced demand. China has been battling deflation for over a year and consumers are postponing purchases even after substantial easing by the PBOC. Most central banks around the world have been easing for many months and the greater concern is a recession.

Lower inflation does give the Fed more breathing room. Price stability is one of their mandates and full employment is the other. Inflation is easing and job growth is slowing down. No rate cut is expected next week, but they might set the table for a rate cut in July. That would be bullish.

A trade deal with China was announced overnight, but we don’t have the specifics and Xi and Trump still need to approve it. Rare earth mineral shipments need to be received by the US for the deal to be approved. This shows a lack of trust and it shows how critical these elements are. China is using that leverage to get semi conductor chips. I read a report yesterday that the Huawei AI chips were not performing and they were overheating.

The July 9th tariff deadline is approaching and we have not heard of any other trade deals being signed. We can expect a few and this is another potential bullish catalyst.

The “Big Beautiful Bill” will dramatically reduce personal and corporate taxes. This is good for economic growth and corporate profits. Republicans need to secure a few votes in the Senate and it should pass in the next few weeks.

All of this news needs to pass and from my perspective the tariffs have been a giant distraction. Macro economic conditions are deteriorating and global credit issues are looming. Towards the end of July, the trade deals will be announced and the bill will be passed. Then the focus will shift to deteriorating economic growth and credit issues. Central banks have been easing and activity continues to decline.

From a short-term perspective, trade from the long side. The news has been good so we have technical and fundamental factors working in the market’s favor right now.

Support is the low from yesterday and resistance is the all-time high.

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