Daily Commentary: June 12, 2024

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New Market High After CPI

Posted by Pete Stolcers on June 12

The S&P 500 is surging higher after the CPI came in below expectations.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS WEDNESDAY – The market is surging higher after the core CPI came in at .2% (.3% expected). This level is almost in line with the Fed’s target rate and it will give them some breathing room to ease if economic conditions soften. Recent economic readings (ISM services and the labor report) suggest that activity is steady and the Fed is not likely to cut rates. The FOMC statement will be released this afternoon.

Solid economic growth and inflation at the Fed’s target rate of 2% would provide a good macro backdrop for the market. At a forward P/E of almost 21, stocks are not cheap. That should provide a small headwind and Asset Managers are not going to chase.

Gaps up to a new all-time high are frequently faded and we have gap reversals (April 4 and May 23). The news was good, but I would not chase a 50 point move in the S&P 500. I suggest waiting for a better entry point. 1OP spiked yesterday near the close and we should have a bearish cross early in the day. See what it produces. If most of the gap is preserved, we will have an excellent buying opportunity. We want to see a wimpy effort to fill some of the gap with mixed overlapping candles. That will be a sign that buyers are going to support the move higher. If we see long red candles into the gap, beware. That is a sign of heavy selling pressure and we could see a gap reversal. I view this as unlikely for a couple of reasons. First of all, the gap higher is significant. Big moves up are more legitimate and they tend not to reverse as often. Secondly, we’ve seen persistent buying this week and the gaps down have been gobbled up. That is a sign that buyers are engaged. If the market continues to surge higher after the open, I will not chase this “Gap and Go”. It can run without me. I know that at some point later in the day we will have a dip and I will be able to take a position then. By waiting I will be able to observe the price action. If the grind higher is orderly and if the pullback later in the day is brief and shallow, I will have the confirmation I need to buy. Unfortunately, I will probably NOT buy because we will be too close to the FOMC statement. I am NOT expecting the Fed’s comments to change much and that could be a splash of cold water if the market overheats today.

Support is at $537 and there is no resistance.

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