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Today Will Be a Great “Tell”
www.oneoption.com
The Israel bombing of Tehran will grab the headlines, but wars have a very temporary market impact.
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS FRIDAY – Wars have a very temporary market impact. You can look back at all of the wars over the last 20 years and you will see that this is true. The Middle East has been at war for a very long time and this is nothing new.
Some will argue that this is going to disrupt global oil supplies and that inflation is going to spike. That will be true short term. Russian oil supplies have also been disrupted by war. I won’t discount this, but every other oil producing nation has been ramping up production and there is a demand issue.
I’ve been mentioning the global economic back drop and it is deteriorating quickly. Last night I watched a report that uses satellite imaging at night in China. The month over month declines in the lights on the highways and ports is showing a dramatic decline. The heat signatures from from factories is consistent with that. China’s economy is collapsing.
Everything in the US appears fine, but I am seeing warning signs here. ISM Services dropped into contraction territory, initial jobless claims are rising, industrial production is declining… The list is long.
This week we had low inflation readings and a trade deal with China Wednesday. That should have produce a huge market rally. It’s the news we’ve been waiting for. The market tried to rally and then it dropped during the day. This is a sign that buyers are not that interested at this level. Trade deals and the “Big Beautiful Bill” are the remaining catalysts. I hope they get passed quickly because I want all of those “distractions” out of the way. Earnings warnings in the back half of July will start to surface and the economic data points will be soft.
So what am I doing today? The move today will seem like it is all war related, but in my opinion it is simply a test of how aggressive buyers are. If they are excited, they will discount the war just like they have every other war and they will buy. On the other hand, if the market struggles to recover, it will be a warning sign that they are not that interested and that the remaining upside is limited.
I recorded a video this morning. If we get stacked greens into the gap right on the open, it will be a sign of aggressive buying. MSFT is a stock to watch. It has been a tech leader and it might present a good day trade on the long side. If the rebound it tenuous all day it will be a warning sign. If buyers are interested, we will not test the overnight low.
Geez… another hurry up and wait moment. “When do we get to trade?” From my perspective a move lower is coming in the next 4-6 weeks. I am going to gather price information and look for tells that buyers are passive and that sellers are taking control. While I wait I’m going to try and make a little money day trading both sides.
Support is at the overnight low and resistance is the close from yesterday.
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